Few gambles off limits in the US
When it comes to gambling, few things are off limits in the US. A person can bet on inflation numbers, natural disasters, gas prices, and more. But what they cannot bet on—at least without a VPN to change their country location—is the outcome of political races. The longstanding concern has been that allowing bets on political battles would turn them into “simple gambling races,” which could fundamentally change the motivation of voters.
a federal judge in Washington has struck down a decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission”
That could all soon change, however. Reported by AP News, “a federal judge in Washington has struck down a decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit a company from offering what amounts to bets on the outcome of Congressional elections.”
The outcome of the ruling has been paused until a planned hearing on Thursday, when the court will explain the reasoning behind its decision. The court will also decide whether to allow a two-week delay at the request of New York-based betting market company Kalshi, for whom the decision ruled in favor.
Kalshi pushing for legal political betting
Kalshi wrote in a court filing: “The commission lost, fair and square, on the law. It should not be allowed to snatch a procedural victory from the jaws of defeat by running out the clock” as they wait for Congressional elections this fall to finish first. The company wrote: “As the election nears, Kalshi and the public deserve access to the contracts that the CFTC has blocked for too long already.”
concerns over turning political battles into “simple gambling races” prevented the push
In 2022, as reported by VegasSlotsOnline News, Kalshi pushed for legal betting on Congressional races. But concerns over turning political battles into “simple gambling races” prevented the push from legalizing American political betting among gambling sites such as Kalshi, PredictIt, and Polymarket. Kalshi believes the CFTC’s hesitance to approve legal betting markets is inappropriate, saying the CFTC has a responsibility to pursue “responsible innovation.”
Despite these arguments from Kalshi, the CFTC not only prevented political betting markets from emerging, VSO News reported that they also cracked down on the already-functioning platform PredictIt, mandating that “the company get rid of its political markets by February 15, 2023.”
Kalshi will not give up the fight
Kalshi did not give up, but by September 2023, the commission reaffirmed its position against offering yes-no prediction bets on which party would control the House of Representatives and Senate, saying such bets “could potentially be used in ways that would have an adverse effect on the integrity of elections, or the perception of integrity of elections — for example, by creating monetary incentives to vote for particular candidates.”
As recently as August 2024, VSO News reported that the Democratic Party asserted its concerns that allowing political gambling could “undermine confidence in the electoral system.” Without the judge pausing the matter until September 12, 2024, Kalshi would already be free to accept gambling wagers on Congressional markets.
European bookmakers give Kamala Harris a “a 54% to 55% probability of prevailing
Kalshi did not make clear whether it intends to immediately make bets available on the presidential and other elections. As of September 11, 2024, AP News reports that European bookmakers give Kamala Harris a “a 54% to 55% probability of prevailing following her performance in Tuesday night’s debate.”